Abstract
Background
The government has been at the forefront of efforts to reduce poverty in all its forms, in alignment with SDG Goal 1, which prioritizes poverty eradication. The poverty report for 2022, like others before it, relies on data collected from household surveys. To maintain up-to-date data, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics has been conducting the quarterly Kenya Household Continuous Survey (KCHS) since 2019.
This survey comprises two main modules: the labor force and the other examining household consumption expenditure. These modules provide insight and assessments into labor market trends and measure welfare, respectively. However, unlike previous KCHS surveys, the 2022 report included the Women Economic Empowerment (WEE) module while the time-use module was excluded. The survey covered a wide range of levels that are a total of 50 levels of estimation, namely national, urban, rural, and 47 counties.
The current survey had a sample size of 1,500 clusters and 24,000 households. These clusters were randomized into four quarters, with each quarter comprising 375 clusters and 6,000 households. The quarterly sample was then distributed across all 47 counties using a power allocation method.
Poverty: Concepts and Measurement
The welfare measure used in this report is based on household consumption expenditure from the 2022 KCHS. This aligns with previous poverty reports for Kenya (GoK, 1997, 2000, 2007, 2015/16, KCHS 2019, KCHS 2020, and KCHS 2021) and international best practices.
The Kenya Continuous Household Survey (KCHS) collected data on both food and non-food consumption by households in Kenya. The 2022 poverty lines used were based on the methodology employed for KIHBS 2015/16, determined using the Cost-of-Basic Needs (CBN) method outlined in Ravallion (1994, 1998), and updated using the 2022 KCHS unit values. Food acquisition data is obtained from four sources: purchases, own production, own stock, and gifts or other sources. The survey utilizes a recall approach, collecting data over a 7-day period. It records the quantities and values of purchased food items, as well as the quantities of food consumed from other sources. For food that is not purchased, a value is assigned based on representative prices from purchased items. An aggregate household food consumption value is calculated by summing the value of food from each source. Data on non-food consumption is collected in different sections of the questionnaire, depending on the frequency of purchase for each item. Certain health expenditures, such as hospital fees, are excluded from the survey as they are not considered part of normal household spending. For urban households, housing rent costs are collected, and for those who do not report rent, rent is imputed based on the characteristics of the dwelling and the household head.
The poverty lines were derived from the 2015/16 KIHBS data using the Cost-of-Basic Needs (CBN) method. The food poverty line in monthly adult equivalent terms was KSh 2,668 for rural areas and KSh 3,521 for urban areas. The overall poverty lines were KSh 4,358 for rural areas and KSh 8,006 for urban areas. The food poverty line for Kenya is estimated based on the cost of consuming 2,250 kilocalories per adult equivalent per day. The poverty measures used are the headcount index, the poverty gap index, and the poverty severity index.
Main Results
Overview of Expenditure Patterns
The findings reveal that the main source of food consumed by households nationally was purchases/ stock, accounting for 83.7 per cent of total food consumption. This trend is also seen in rural areas, where more than three-quarters of food consumed came from purchases, accounting for (78.4%) of total consumption. Urban areas such as Mombasa and Nairobi City counties showed the highest share of food consumption from purchases, with (97.8%)and (97.6%), respectively. The proportion of food consumed from own production in rural areas decreased from (20.0%) in 2021 to (16.8%) in 2022.
In terms of expenditure, there has been an increase in average national food and non-food expenditure per month per adult equivalent, rising to KSh 8,030 from KSh 7,393 in 2021. Food's share in total consumption accounted for a significant portion, at 59.1 percent. In regard to residence/County, more than two-thirds of food shared in total consumption was 65.4 percent in rural areas and 44.3 per cent in urban areas. Counties with lower mean expenditures were Turkana and Mandera, recording KSh 4,203 and KSh 4,521 respectively.
The data shows income disparities between the poor and the rich. The poorest quintile accounted for 8.5 per cent of the total consumption expenditure in rural areas in 2022, while the richest quintile accounted for almost half of total consumption. Similarly, in urban areas, the richest quintile had the highest share in consumption.
Distribution of Poverty
Estimated at individual level, the national food poverty headcount rate in 2022 was 31.7 per cent, translating to over 16 million people being unable to meet the food poverty line threshold, while the overall poverty headcount rate was at 39.8 per cent, implying that over 20 million individuals were unable to meet the overall poverty line threshold. The trends in the overall poverty headcount rate show a decrease from 36.1 per cent in 2015/16 to 33.6 per cent in 2019. The trend then changes to an increase to 42.9 per cent in 2020 then decreases to 38.6 per cent in 2021 followed by a slight increase to 39.8 per cent in 2022.
The hardcore poverty headcount rate for individuals was 7.1 per cent in 2022, meaning that over 3.6 million individuals lived in conditions of abject poverty and were unable to afford the minimum required food consumption basket, even if they allocated all their food and nonfood expenditures to food alone. In 2022, the food poverty rate was more than 50 per cent in the following counties, which happen to be in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas (ASAL): Turkana (64.3%), Mandera (60.4%), Samburu (56.7%), and Marsabit (54.4%). The counties with the lowest food poverty rates were Nairobi City (15.8%), Nyeri (18.2%), and Kiambu (18.3%). The seven counties with the highest overall poverty rates in 2022 were the following: Turkana (82.7%), Mandera (72.9%), Samburu (71.9%), Garissa (67.8%), Tana River (66.7%), Marsabit (66.1%), and Wajir (64.7%). The lowest overall poverty rates were in Nairobi City (16.5%), Kiambu (19.9%), Kirinyaga (23.1%), Embu (24.3%), Nyeri (26.0%), and Narok (26.2%) counties.
In 2022, hardcore poverty rates were highest in the following six counties: Turkana (42.6%), Samburu (36.0%), Marsabit (26.2%), Mandera (24.8%), Tana River (22.7%), and Busia (18.4)
Poverty by Characteristics of the Household
Estimating the overall poverty rate at the household level in 2022 suggests that about 3 in 10 households in Kenya are poor, with a poverty gap of 8 per cent. Household poverty is higher in rural areas compared to urban areas with rates of 38 and 26 per cent, respectively, across all age groups.
In terms of the age of household head, the overall poverty rate ranges from a low of 9.6 per cent among urban households with a head aged 15-19, to a high of 46 percent among households headed by the elderly age 70+ in rural areas. Nationally, female-headed households have slightly higher poverty headcount rates (35.3%) compared to male-headed households at (32.6%).
Households with children had higher poverty rates (38%) compared to those with no children (24%). Rural households with children had the highest poverty headcount rate of 41 per cent in this category. Poverty headcount rate increases with household size across all domains of residence, ranging from a low of 20 per cent of households with 1 to 3 members to 60 per cent among households with 7 or more members.
Results show that households with heads in polygamous marriages are one and a half times more likely to be poor compared to their counterparts with household heads in monogamous marriages (48% vs 33%), respectively.
Child Poverty
Estimates of food, overall, and hardcore child poverty for 2022 were analyzed. Children are considered to be poor if they are living in households that have been identified as poor based on the three poverty lines. At the national level, 33.1 per cent (7.5 million) of children (age 0-17 years) were food poor. Food poverty is higher among children in rural areas compared to children in urban areas, at 33.2 and 28.6 per cent, respectively.
At the county level, Mandera had the highest child food poverty rate at 69 per cent, while Nairobi and Kiambu had the lowest child food poverty of 19 per cent each. Despite Nairobi City having the lowest child poverty rates, it had the highest number of food poor children, with 1.8 million children.
Youth Poverty
The findings show that 4 out of 10 youth in the 15-24-year category and 3 in 10 youth in the 18-35-year category were food poor in 2022. This indicates that they are unable to meet their daily food requirements to attain at least the minimum 2,250 kilocalories for their daily energy requirements. This implies that 4.0 million youth (15-24) and 4.4 million youth (18-35) are food poor. For both youth categories, food poverty is higher in rural areas (41% and 34%) than urban areas (37% and 2%).
The top five food-poor counties (among the 15-24-year youth) are Mandera (with a food poverty rate of 86%), Turkana (74%), Marsabit (67%), Kilifi (61%), Samburu (57%) and West Pokot (57%).
Poverty Among the Elderly
According to this survey, 31 per cent (479,000) of adults aged 70+ were food poor nationally in 2022. Elderly persons living in urban areas are poorer than their rural counterparts (39% against 30%). In terms of hardcore poverty, results show that approximately 169,000 individuals aged 60-69 years and 172,000 individuals aged 70 and older live in extreme poverty. The counties of Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, and Samburu are the most affected by hardcore poverty among the elderly.
Gini Index
The results show that inequality, measured using the Gini Index, has been varying across the years, with 2015/16 having an index of 39.1 per cent, 2019 having an index of 40.9, 2020 having an index of 35.9, 2021 having an index of 38.9, and 2022 having an index of 38.4.